November 25′ Market Report



Kindred SF Homes – Market Update

November 2025

Greetings!
San Francisco’s market is extremely tight, with single-family home prices at two-year highs and inventory down more than 35% from last year. Across the Bay Area, October brought a sharp drop in new listings, pushing inventory below normal levels.
Condos are feeling the strain, with falling prices and longer days on market—especially in Silicon Valley—while single-family homes continue to sell quickly and stay highly competitive.
All the info is below in the Local Lowdown.
Stay informed and ahead of the curve, this month’s market update brings you the latest national trends and local insights that shape our real estate landscape. From interest rate shifts to inventory changes, we break down what it all means for you.
Whether you’re thinking of buying, selling, or simply keeping an eye on the market, we’re here to guide you with clarity and confidence.
Let’s navigate the market together, one smart move at a time.
– Susan Dakdduk, LIC #01714089

The Big Story

Quick Take:
  • Housing is slowly becoming more affordable, as interest rates slowly creep down over time.
  • As of the time this is written, the average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.22%, representing a drastic decline from earlier this year.
  • Inventory levels are holding steady, despite slight increases in transaction volume.
  • According to the CME FedWatch tool, we’re looking at a 65% chance that the Fed cuts rates by another quarter point in their December meeting.
Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.
*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.

Housing payments have become slightly more affordable as interest rates tick down

Median monthly P&I payments are on the decline, as one might expect when interest rates are falling. This, of course, is great for new buyers that are in the market for a home. If we see an influx of new buyers, there is the possibility that we might see a less stagnant market when the spring time rush comes in early 2026. Unfortunately though, interest rates are still much too high for many people who locked in rates in the 2-3% range to justify moving to a new home and taking on a considerably higher mortgage payment each month. We likely won’t see these homes/homeowners enter the market until rates come down substantially more than they already have.

The Fed announced yet another quarter point cut to the federal funds rate

In the Fed’s October FOMC meeting, they decided to cut the federal funds rate by another quarter point, making the overnight interest rate range between 3.75% and 4.00%. This led mortgage rates to fall in unison, which is great news for prospective buyers and recent buyers that made the bet that they would be able to refinance at a lower rate sooner rather than later. It’ll be important to look at the economic data that’s released once the government shutdown ends, as this data is what the Fed bases their interest rate decisions on. Once we receive some more clarity regarding economic data, then we’ll have a better idea of whether or not to expect a rate cut in December.

Inventories remain strong despite an increase in transaction volume

Inventories have remained incredibly strong throughout this year, as inventory growth has consistently outstripped existing home sale growth. This past month, we saw inventories grow by 13.97% on a year-over-year basis, while there were only 6.01% more existing homes sold. It’ll be interesting to see where inventories go over the course of the winter, since they usually decline meaningfully.

We may have another rate cut in the not-so-distant future

As we mentioned above, we might have another rate cut ahead of us, as CME’s FedWatch predicts a 65% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in the Fed’s December meeting. However, it is worth noting that once the government shutdown-related “economic data moratorium” that we’ve been facing is lifted, this probability can shift very rapidly. If economic data is considerably better or worse than anticipated, then this may change how the Fed looks at the cutting cycle that we’re currently in. This means it’ll be very important to keep your eye out for key inflation and labor data once it eventually comes out.
All of this is just what we’re seeing at a national level, though. As we all know, real estate is incredibly localized, which is why you should take a look at your local lowdown below:

Big Story Data

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:
  • San Francisco reaches unprecedented market tightness with single-family homes hitting two-year price highs and inventory dropping over 35% year-over-year, while both property types firmly establish seller's market status.
  • The Bay Area experiences a dramatic "inventory overcorrection" in October, with most regions swinging from elevated summer levels to below-normal supply, driven primarily by sharp declines in new listings rather than increased sales.
  • Condo markets across the region face mounting pressure with widespread price declines and dramatically extended days on market, particularly in Silicon Valley where some areas see listings taking more than twice as long to sell.
  • The property type divide intensifies as single-family homes maintain ultra-competitive conditions with rapid sales, while condos struggle with extended market times despite favorable buyer conditions.
Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

San Francisco surges while regional condo markets face persistent headwinds

October showcased San Francisco's extraordinary market strength, with single-family homes reaching their highest median sale price in two years, representing a 7.29% year-over-year increase. The average single-family home sells for 114.2% of asking price, while condos trade at 101.9% of asking – marking a notable shift from earlier months. However, this San Francisco strength stands in stark contrast to widespread condo weakness across other Bay Area regions. Silicon Valley experienced particularly severe condo declines, with San Mateo down 4.73%, Santa Clara plummeting 8.97%, and Santa Cruz collapsing 18.77% year-over-year.
Single-family homes in Silicon Valley showed more stability, with San Mateo up 5.26%, while Santa Clara and Santa Cruz declined modestly by 2.42% and 3.33% respectively. The East Bay demonstrated minimal movement in single-family prices, with Alameda up 2.00% and Contra Costa down just 0.81%, though condos extended their losing streak with declines of 9.38% and 7.69% respectively. The North Bay showed remarkable price stability overall, with single-family homes and condos in most counties trading within their historical bands, though notable volatility emerged in certain condo markets – Solano County jumped 10.26% while Napa County fell 9.49%.

The great inventory overcorrection transforms regional supply dynamics

October marked a dramatic reversal in Bay Area inventory trends, with most regions swinging from elevated summer levels to significant year-over-year deficits. San Francisco led this transformation with the most extreme contraction, as single-family inventory plummeted 35.54% and condo inventory crashed 40.68% below last year's levels. This dramatic decline resulted in months of supply dropping to 1.3 for single-family homes (down 38.10% year-over-year) and 2.6 for condos (down 49.02%), pushing both property types firmly into seller's market territory for the first time in recent memory.
Silicon Valley's single-family market completed its inventory reversal, ending October with 8.72% fewer active listings than last year and 15.22% fewer than the prior month, driven by 5.89% fewer new listings hitting the market. The condo market showed a more modest correction at 2.77% above last year. The North Bay experienced similarly dramatic shifts, with single-family inventory down 14.06% and condos down 10.11% year-over-year, driven primarily by steep 25.41% and 8.91% declines in new listings for each property type respectively. The East Bay stood as the lone exception with relatively static inventory levels, though the condo market showed interesting developments with 19.05% fewer listings added and 5.85% lower active inventory, suggesting a potential inflection point.

Days on market paradox: percentage spikes mask varied absolute performance

October revealed a fascinating divergence between percentage increases in days on market and actual selling speeds, with the condo market showing particularly dramatic extensions. San Francisco maintained relatively quick movement with single-family homes averaging 14 days (up 7.69% year-over-year) and condos at 26 days (up 13.04%), though both figures represent slight increases as inventory tightens further. Silicon Valley presented the starkest contrasts, with single-family homes in San Mateo and Santa Clara selling in just 12-13 days while condos experienced severe delays – San Mateo condos now average 32 days (up 39.13%), while Santa Clara and Santa Cruz condos spend 41 and 69 days on market respectively, representing shocking year-over-year increases of 105% and 155.56%.
The East Bay showed significant percentage increases but maintained relatively fast absolute times for single-family homes at 15 days in Alameda (up 7.14%) and 20 days in Contra Costa (up 33.33%), while condos extended to 30 and 41 days with 50.00% and 78.26% year-over-year increases. The North Bay displayed the most mixed results, with most counties showing modest increases of 11-36%, though Marin County notably saw a 4.17% decrease. This pattern suggests that while buyer selectivity has increased across the board, the actual impact on market velocity varies significantly by property type and location.

Seller's market momentum reaches new heights across property types

October's inventory overcorrection accelerated the Bay Area's dramatic shift toward seller-dominant markets, with several regions reaching unprecedented levels of supply constraint. San Francisco achieved remarkable status with both property types firmly in seller's market territory – single-family homes at an ultra-low 1.3 months of supply and condos at 2.6 months, representing the tightest condo market San Francisco has seen in recent years. Silicon Valley maintained its traditional ultra-competitive single-family stance with San Mateo at 1.5 months and Santa Clara at an extraordinarily tight 1.3 months, while Santa Cruz continues creeping back toward balanced territory at 3.5 months. The Silicon Valley condo market shows signs of normalization, with San Mateo achieving perfect balance at exactly 3.0 months, while Santa Clara (3.2 months) and Santa Cruz (4.2 months) remain in buyer's territory but trending toward equilibrium.
The North Bay achieved the most dramatic transformation, with Marin and Solano Counties' single-family markets flipping to seller's markets at 2.3 and 2.8 months respectively, while Sonoma achieved perfect balance at 3.0 months and Napa continued its march toward balance at 6.4 months. North Bay condos also shifted decisively, with Sonoma reaching perfect balance at 3.0 months and other counties moving steadily in that direction. The East Bay preserved its traditional market structure with single-family homes favoring sellers at 1.9 months in Alameda and 2.2 months in Contra Costa, while condos remained buyer-friendly at 4.4 and 3.4 months respectively. This region-wide pattern suggests the Bay Area has entered a new phase of supply constraint that could persist through the winter months and into 2026.

Local Lowdown Data

Contact Us
Susan Dakdduk
01714089
580 4th Street San Francisco California 94107
415-378-4985
kindredsfhomes.com

All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, this is not a solicitation of brokerage services. Susan Dakdduk, License 01714089
Kindred SF Homes.
This email was sent to dennisvalansi@gmail.com.
Don't want to receive these anymore? Unsubscribe here.
Powered by ActivePipe, a MoxiWorks Product

ActivePipe Message ID: 3431144

/by

October 25′ Market Report



Kindred SF Homes – Market Update

October 2025

Greetings!
In September, Bay Area inventory shifted noticeably, with most regions showing year-over-year declines for the first time in months—mainly because homes are selling faster, not because more are being listed.
San Francisco led the way, with inventory dropping over 30% and single-family home prices rising, while other areas saw more typical price trends. Across the region, homes are still selling quickly, even if days on market crept up slightly.
Overall, the Bay Area is moving further into a seller’s market, with San Francisco’s condo market close behind and other areas steadily following.
The full story below, in the Local Lowdown.
Stay informed and ahead of the curve, this month’s market update brings you the latest national trends and local insights that shape our real estate landscape. From interest rate shifts to inventory changes, we break down what it all means for you.
Whether you’re thinking of buying, selling, or simply keeping an eye on the market, we’re here to guide you with clarity and confidence.
Let’s navigate the market together, one smart move at a time.
– Susan Dakdduk, LIC #01714089

The Big Story

Quick Take:
  • Affordability remains an issue nationwide, as monthly P&I payments ticked up by 2.90% year-over-year.
  • Mortgage rates are finally starting to decline, as we enter a rate-cutting cycle.
  • Inventories are still growing at a faster rate than existing home sales.
  • Quick observation about Macroeconomics/The Broader Market
Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.
*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.

Mortgage rates have begun to decline thanks to the Fed

Recently, the Fed came out and announced a quarter-point cut to the federal funds rate, but that was not the most exciting news that they announced. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that we should expect two more quarter-point cuts before the end of the year, signalling that we are in the beginning innings of a Fed cutting cycle. This, of course, is huge news for the housing market. Despite the fact that many markets have retained much of their post-pandemic gains in value, the housing market has been largely stagnant, with inventories building as home buyers decide to sit on the sidelines and wait.

Affordability remains a concern throughout the country

Housing affordability has been a huge problem facing the country ever since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although many thought that home prices would decrease as interest rates increased, many markets did not see a normalization of home prices. This, of course, has left many prospective home buyers worried about where the market will go as we enter a new rate-cutting cycle. Many fear that lower interest rates may bring a slew of new buyers to the market, pushing home prices up even further, and making home ownership even less attainable for first-time buyers. On the flip side, homeowners stand to benefit in a huge way if declining interest rates lead to a housing frenzy, as they’ll accumulate significant equity in a very small period of time, just like what we saw throughout 2020-2022.

Inventories continue to build nationwide

As we mentioned above, the national inventory is quite a bit higher than last year, with 11.68% more homes listed on the market. This really underscores the fact that buyers have decided mainly to throw in the towel and wait for a better chance to purchase a home. When you combine this with the fact that there were 4.88% more new homes hitting the market than this time last year, you have a recipe for growing inventory!

Current market dynamics have created an interesting setup for 2026

As we move into the seasonally slow months, the market environment that we’re in is setting up for what could be a very interesting 2026. Inventories are still growing (for now), and interest rates are falling, which could put us in a very interesting position when the spring frenzy begins next year. It’ll be important to keep a keen eye on both the market and broader macroeconomic conditions throughout the fall and winter, so that you and your clients are ready for whatever spring has to throw at you.
All of this is just what we’re seeing at a national level, though. To get a better idea of what’s going on in your local market, be sure to check out your local lowdown below:

Big Story Data

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:
  • September marked a significant shift in Bay Area inventory dynamics, with most regions experiencing year-over-year declines for the first time in months, driven by increased sales velocity rather than new listing growth.
  • San Francisco stands out with dramatic inventory declines of over 30% and surging single-family home prices, while other regions show more modest price movements within historical bands.
  • Market velocity continues to accelerate across most Bay Areas regions, with listings selling faster despite percentage increases in days on market, as absolute numbers remain remarkably low.
  • The region-wide trend toward seller's markets intensifies as inventory normalization continues, with San Francisco's condo market approaching seller's territory and other regions showing steady movement in that direction.
Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

Price stability dominates most regions while San Francisco surges

September showcased divergent price trends across the Bay Area, with San Francisco experiencing a dramatic surge while other regions maintained relative stability. San Francisco's single-family home market jumped 7.76% year-over-year, marking the largest increase the market has seen all year, though condos declined 3.29%. Notably, the average San Francisco condo is now selling at a slight premium to listing price for the first time since May. Silicon Valley demonstrated remarkable stability with single-family homes remaining within their historical pricing bands – San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties posted modest gains of 2.56% and 2.63% respectively, while Santa Cruz County declined 4.30%.
The condo market continued its downward trend for the second consecutive month with declines of 3.88% in San Mateo, 3.01% in Santa Clara, and 2.53% in Santa Cruz. The East Bay returned to year-over-year declines after August's brief respite, with single-family homes down 1.98% in Alameda County and 1.59% in Contra Costa, though prices remain well within their historical bands. Condos in Contra Costa County declined 4.21% year-over-year. The North Bay showed the most uniform pattern with near-stagnant pricing across the board – Sonoma, Marin, and Solano Counties all posted small declines of 3.47%, 1.43%, and 0.81% respectively, while Napa County managed a tiny 0.17% premium to last year's prices.

Inventory normalization accelerates with dramatic year-over-year declines

September marked a watershed moment for Bay Area inventory levels, with most regions recording their first year-over-year declines in months. San Francisco led with the most dramatic inventory contraction, as single-family home listings plummeted 33.65% and condo inventory fell 32.22% year-over-year. This was driven by a combination of 11.26% fewer new single-family listings, 7.61% fewer new condo listings, and surging sales with 19.33% more single-family homes and an extraordinary 51.82% more condos sold. Silicon Valley's single-family market achieved a remarkable reversal, recording 5.34% fewer active listings than last year, largely due to 12.56% more homes sold. However, the condo market remained slightly elevated at 6.65% above last year's levels.
The North Bay experienced its first year-over-year inventory decline in several months, with single-family listings down 2.98%, driven by a sharp 14.75% drop in new listings and a 3.95% increase in sold listings, resulting in a dramatic 12.14% month-over-month inventory decline. Condo inventory remained slightly elevated at 3.49% above last year. The East Bay showed continued normalization with single-family inventory at just 2.41% above last year and condos at 6.75% above, both representing substantial improvements from summer peaks. The normalization was aided by nearly 10% more single-family homes sold in September compared to last year.

Market velocity accelerates despite percentage increases in days on market

September revealed an interesting paradox across the Bay Area: while percentage increases in days on market appear significant, absolute numbers remain remarkably low, indicating strong underlying demand. San Francisco demonstrated accelerating velocity with single-family homes spending just 13 days on market (down 7.14% year-over-year) and condos dropping to 25 days (down 28.57% year-over-year and 50.98% month-over-month). Silicon Valley maintained breakneck pace for single-family homes, with San Mateo and Santa Clara County listings scooped up in under two weeks, and Santa Cruz County at just 29 days.
However, condos are experiencing significant delays with San Mateo at 40 days (+25% year-over-year), Santa Clara at 28 days (+55.56%), and Santa Cruz at 41 days (+2.5%). The East Bay showed significant percentage increases but maintained relatively quick absolute times, with single-family homes spending 17 days in Alameda County (+21.43% year-over-year) and 23 days in Contra Costa (+27.78%). Condos moved in 32 and 33 days respectively, despite year-over-year increases of 45.45% and 37.50%. The North Bay presented the most dramatic contrast, with Napa County's average listing spending 88 days on market (up 72.55% year-over-year and 69.23% month-over-month), while other counties showed more moderate increases. Marin County bucked all trends, maintaining the exact same days on market as last year.

Seller's market momentum builds across property types and regions

September's inventory normalization accelerated the Bay Area's shift toward seller's markets, with some regions reaching unprecedented levels of seller advantage. San Francisco's single-family market remained firmly in seller's territory at 1.5 months of supply, while the condo market approached seller's status at just 3.2 months – the closest it's been in recent memory. Silicon Valley maintained its ultra-competitive single-family stance with San Mateo at 1.7 months and Santa Clara at an extremely low 1.4 months, while Santa Cruz remained a buyer's market at 3.9 months. All Silicon Valley condo markets favor buyers with 3.3 months in San Mateo and Santa Clara, and 5.7 months in Santa Cruz. The East Bay preserved its traditional split with single-family homes favoring sellers at 2.1 months in Alameda and 2.6 months in Contra Costa, while condos remained buyer-friendly at 5.0 and 4.0 months, respectively.
The North Bay showed the clearest shift toward balanced and seller's markets, with Marin County achieving perfect balance at exactly 3.0 months for single-family homes, while Sonoma (3.9 months), Solano (3.3 months), and Napa (7.7 months) continue trending toward balance from buyer's market territory. North Bay condos remain entirely in buyer's market territory but are slowly drifting toward balance, with supply ranging from 4.1 months in Sonoma to 7.5 months in Napa County. This region-wide pattern suggests that as the traditional fall season approaches, seller leverage is strengthening across most Bay Area markets.

Local Lowdown Data

Contact Us
Susan Dakdduk
01714089
580 4th Street San Francisco California 94107
415-378-4985
kindredsfhomes.com

All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, this is not a solicitation of brokerage services. Susan Dakdduk, License 01714089
Kindred SF Homes.
This email was sent to dennisvalansi@gmail.com.
Don't want to receive these anymore? Unsubscribe here.
Powered by ActivePipe, a MoxiWorks Product

ActivePipe Message ID: 3431165

/by

September 25′ Market Report



Kindred SF Homes – Market Update

September 2025

Greetings!
August was a turning point for Bay Area real estate. Single-family home prices bounced back, while condos continue to struggle.
Inventory is settling after the summer surge—San Francisco hit record lows, while other areas remain higher than last year. Homes are staying on the market longer as buyers grow more selective.
Overall, the market favors single-family homes, with San Francisco now a seller’s market for both property types.
Stay informed and ahead of the curve, this month’s market update brings you the latest national trends and local insights that shape our real estate landscape. From interest rate shifts to inventory changes, we break down what it all means for you.
Whether you’re thinking of buying, selling, or simply keeping an eye on the market, we’re here to guide you with clarity and confidence.
Let’s navigate the market together, one smart move at a time.
– Susan Dakdduk, LIC #01714089

The Big Story

Quick Take:
  • Median monthly principal and interest payments remain near the highest levels we’ve seen in the past year.
  • Mortgage rates have begun to drop, as we near the highly anticipated rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
  • Existing home sales remain slightly higher than they were last year, while we observe nearly a 16% year-over-year increase in available inventory.
  • We may see rates start to drop sooner rather than later!
Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.
*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.

Median monthly payments remain high, for now

At $2,235 per month in principal and interest payments for the median homeowner, housing costs are near the highest points we’ve seen in the last year. As we all know, this is driven primarily by the fact that interest rates have remained high for quite some time, and home prices have not fallen by much over the past few years. However, existing homeowners might be able to save some money in the coming years/months, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned in his speech at Jackson Hole that the Fed is keen on cutting rates in the near term. This, of course, would translate into lower P&I payments for new and existing homeowners alike.

Are there rate cuts on the horizon?

As we mentioned in the previous section, the Fed Chairman mentioned in a speech at Jackson Hole that we’re likely to see cuts to the federal funds rate in the not-so-distant future, which would, of course, be great for the largely stagnant housing market that we’ve been in recent months/years. For prospective buyers, now might be a great time to lock in a great home at a relatively low price. If real estate values perform the same way as the last time we saw substantial decreases to mortgage rates, now might be an opportune time to lock in a home before values surge, then refinance once rates have bottomed out!

Mortgage rates have already started to decrease a bit

Although mortgage rates were in the mid to high-6% range throughout July and August, they’ve started to come down since the Fed Chairman’s speech. At the time of writing this newsletter, the average mortgage rate was 6.35%, according to Freddie Mac. Although this likely represents the market pricing in the rate cut before it even happens, if the Fed is entering a rate-cutting cycle, then there will be more rate cuts to come. If you want to keep an eye on where mortgage rates are going, then it’s particularly important to pay attention to any commentary out of the Fed, as well as economic data that’s published surrounding employment and inflation, as the mandate of the Fed is to control inflation and promote healthy employment.

Inventories are relatively high right now, but we might see that change in the near future

Over the course of the past few months, we’ve seen inventories remain at an elevated level on a year-over-year basis. However, with the recent drop in interest rates and the prospect of lower interest rates in the near-term future, we might see some of the built-up inventory begin to move, as housing becomes more affordable. Over the coming months, it’ll be important to pay attention to inventory levels, as they’re often leading indicators of price movements over time!
It’s important to note, though, that all of this is just what we’re seeing at a national level. To learn more about your local market, be sure to check out the Local Lowdown below:

Big Story Data

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:
  • August marked a turning point for Bay Area real estate, with single-family home prices rebounding in most regions while condo markets continue to struggle with volatility and declines.
  • Inventory levels are normalizing across the region after summer peaks, with San Francisco reaching some of the lowest supply levels ever recorded while other areas remain elevated year-over-year.
  • Despite inventory normalization, listings are spending significantly more time on market throughout most of the Bay Area, reflecting increased buyer selectivity.
  • Market dynamics strongly favor single-family homes over condos, with San Francisco becoming a dual seller's market while other regions maintain the traditional split between property types.
Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

Single-family home prices rebound while condo markets remain volatile

August showcased a remarkable turnaround for Bay Area single-family home markets after months of uncertainty. Silicon Valley led the recovery with price appreciation across all counties for the first time in four months – San Mateo County surged 6.74%, Santa Cruz gained 5.54%, and Santa Clara increased 3.01% year-over-year. The East Bay also returned to positive territory for the first time in six months, with Alameda and Contra Costa Counties posting modest gains of 1.20% and 1.33% respectively. The North Bay showed strong performance in most areas, with Solano County up 4.17%, Marin County gaining 2.47%, and Sonoma County rising 1.29%, though Napa County experienced a significant 8.67% decline. San Francisco displayed unusual stability with single-family homes down just 1.38% and condos up a modest 0.74% – a stark contrast to its typical volatility. However, condo markets throughout the region continued to face headwinds, with Silicon Valley experiencing broad declines ranging from 3.64% in Santa Cruz to 5.20% in Santa Clara County. The East Bay's condo market remained mixed, with Contra Costa County up 2.04% but Alameda County down 7.41%. North Bay condos showed extreme volatility, with dramatic increases in Napa (29.76%), Marin (20.07%), and Sonoma (6.98%) Counties, while Solano County declined 11.43%.

Inventory normalization accelerates with San Francisco reaching historic lows

August marked a significant shift in Bay Area inventory dynamics, with most regions continuing the normalization process that began in the summer. San Francisco reached unprecedented territory with both single-family homes and condos achieving seller's market status – single-family inventory dropped to just 1.1 months of supply while condos fell to 2.8 months, representing the lowest levels ever recorded in the area. Single-family inventory declined 17.51% year-over-year, while condo inventory dropped 22.69%. Silicon Valley made a dramatic reversal, with single-family home inventory actually falling 4.04% below last year's levels for the first time in months, though condo inventory remained elevated at 16.77% above last year's levels – still a significant improvement from prior months. The North Bay showed the most balanced inventory picture, with single-family homes down just 0.73% year-over-year and condos up a modest 2.75%, indicating near-normalization. The East Bay, while still elevated, continued its downward trajectory with single-family inventory at 9.97% above last year and condos at 11.67% – substantial decreases from peak levels. Notably, most regions experienced fewer new listings hitting the market year-over-year, suggesting seller hesitancy rather than increased buyer absorption as the primary driver of inventory declines.

Days on market increase despite inventory improvements

One of August's most notable trends was the continued increase in time on market across most Bay Area regions, despite improving inventory conditions. The North Bay showed the most dramatic increases, with single-family homes spending 27.78% more time on the market in Sonoma County and approximately 20% longer in Solano and Napa Counties, though Marin County bucked the trend with a 6.45% decrease. The East Bay demonstrated significant variations by property type and county, with single-family homes spending 21.43% more time on market in Alameda County and 37.50% more in Contra Costa County, while condo market times showed mixed results – Alameda condos spent 58.33% more time on market while Contra Costa condos actually decreased by 10.34%. Silicon Valley maintained relatively quick movement for single-family homes despite percentage increases, with absolute times remaining at just 14 days in San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties and 26 days in Santa Cruz County. San Francisco showed the most interesting pattern, with single-family homes remaining incredibly fast at just 15 days while condos increased to 50 days (up 6.38% year-over-year). These patterns suggest that while inventory levels are improving, buyer behavior has fundamentally shifted toward increased selectivity and deliberation.

Property type trumps geography in market dynamics

August reinforced the Bay Area's clear segmentation by property type rather than geographic location. San Francisco made headlines by achieving seller's market status for both single-family homes (1.1 months of supply) and condos (2.8 months of supply) – a rare occurrence that highlights the area's extreme inventory constraints. Silicon Valley maintained its competitive stance for single-family homes, with San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties at ultra-low 1.5 and 1.3 months respectively, while Santa Cruz County remained a buyer's market at 3.9 months. All Silicon Valley condo markets favored buyers, ranging from 3.2 months in Santa Clara to 5.5 months in Santa Cruz County. The East Bay preserved its traditional split with single-family homes strongly favoring sellers at 1.9 months in Alameda and 2.6 months in Contra Costa, while condos remained buyer-friendly at 4.4 and 4.2 months respectively. The North Bay showed the most variation, with Marin achieving perfect balance at 3.0 months for single-family homes, while Solano (3.3 months), Sonoma (3.9 months), and Napa (7.6 months) all favored buyers. North Bay condos uniformly favored buyers, with supply ranging from 4.0 months in Marin to 7.5 months in Napa County. This consistent pattern across the region suggests that single-family homes have retained their premium status and scarcity value, while condos present substantial opportunities for buyers willing to navigate longer timelines and increased inventory choices.

Local Lowdown Data

Contact Us
Susan Dakdduk
01714089
580 4th Street San Francisco California 94107
415-378-4985
kindredsfhomes.com

All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, this is not a solicitation of brokerage services. Susan Dakdduk, License 01714089
Kindred SF Homes.
This email was sent to dennisvalansi@gmail.com.
Don't want to receive these anymore? Unsubscribe here.
Powered by ActivePipe, a MoxiWorks Product

ActivePipe Message ID: 3431169

/by

August 25′ Market Report



Kindred SF Homes – Market Update

August 2025

Greetings!
Bay Area home prices are showing a mixed picture—Silicon Valley stays strong, while the East Bay has seen six straight months of declines. Inventory varies widely too, with San Francisco facing tight shortages and other areas seeing more supply.
Even with these differences, homes are sitting on the market longer across most of the region. Overall, it’s a competitive sellers’ market in core Silicon Valley, while outlying areas are more balanced or leaning toward buyers.
More below in the Local Lowdown.
Stay informed and ahead of the curve, this month’s market update brings you the latest national trends and local insights that shape our real estate landscape. From interest rate shifts to inventory changes, we break down what it all means for you.
Whether you’re thinking of buying, selling, or simply keeping an eye on the market, we’re here to guide you with clarity and confidence.
Let’s navigate the market together, one smart move at a time.
– Susan Dakdduk, LIC #01714089

The Big Story

Quick Take:
  • The median home in the US is surprisingly appreciating at a slower rate than inflation.
  • Mortgage rates remain stagnant, in the high 6-percent range that we’ve seen for a couple of years at this point.
  • Inventory is continuing to build, as existing home sales remain stagnant on a year-over-year basis.
  • Another FOMC meeting has come and gone, and the federal funds rate remains unchanged.
Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.
*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.

Median home sales price grew by just 1.97%

In the not-so-distant past, housing price growth outstripped inflation growth by a wide margin. However, now that the housing market has normalized, we’re seeing more modest levels of appreciation, with the median home sale price increasing by just 1.97% on a year-over-year basis in June. This represents great news for home buyers, and the housing market as a whole, considering that the June CPI reading came in at 2.7%. It’ll be worth paying attention to this over the course of the next few months, especially considering that many analysts are expecting a rate cut from the Fed in the September FOMC meeting.

Inventory levels continue to build as more new homes hit the market

The trend of growing inventories has continued this month, with 15.91% more inventory on the market in June on a year-over-year basis. This growth in inventories can be attributed to the fact that the new homes are hitting the market at a much faster rate than new buyers are entering the market. In June, we saw a 0.77% increase in the number of existing homes sold on a year-over-year basis, while at the same time, we saw a 7.25% increase in the number of new listings hitting the market. Although there are still some buyers entering into the market every month, there is still a rather large contingent of people holding out until rates come back down.

The Fed is holding rates steady due to economic uncertainty

This past month, we saw the Fed hold rates steady once again, as they brace for the consequences of the newly minted tariff policies that went into effect in early August. Although inflation data has led many to believe that we need to see substantial rate cuts in the not-so-distant future, Fed officials are incredibly concerned about the potential impacts of the freshly enacted tariff policy. Additionally, the Fed has a dual mandate; it’s responsible for controlling inflation and promoting maximum employment. At this point in time, we’re seeing relatively low inflation, and a very low unemployment rate, so Fed officials seemingly aren’t in a hurry to cut the federal funds rate.

Mortgage rates remain stagnant, but comparatively high

It probably isn’t much of a surprise that inventories are building and median sale prices have remained relatively stagnant, given the lack of movement in rates. Many believe that there is a very large contingent of people who simply aren’t willing to pay a comparatively very high interest rate to purchase a home, especially given that many have locked into rates in the 2-4% range on existing homes. The consistently high mortgage rates that we’ve seen have led people to stay in their homes for longer, resulting in more sellers on the market than buyers. However, we might see some movement if we see some positive commentary from the Fed in the upcoming FOMC meeting.
However, it’s important to remember that this is what we’re seeing at a national level. Oftentimes, what we see in California can be quite a bit different than the nation as a whole. We’ve done a deep dive into California markets in the local lowdown section below.

Big Story Data

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:
  • Median sale prices show mixed performance across the Bay Area, with Silicon Valley maintaining strength while the East Bay experiences six consecutive months of declines.
  • Inventory dynamics vary dramatically by region – San Francisco faces severe shortages while most other areas see rising inventory levels.
  • Despite varying inventory conditions, listings are spending significantly more time on the market across nearly all Bay Area markets.
  • Market conditions range from highly competitive sellers' markets in core Silicon Valley to more balanced or buyer-friendly conditions in outlying areas.
Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

Regional price performance reveals a tale of two markets

The Bay Area's real estate market is displaying stark regional differences in price performance. Silicon Valley continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience, with Santa Clara County single-family homes maintaining their impressive growth streak for over 12 months without a single year-over-year decline. In contrast, the East Bay has experienced six consecutive months of median sale price decreases, with single-family homes down 2.08% and 6.56% year-over-year in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties respectively. San Francisco and the North Bay fall somewhere in between, with San Francisco single-family homes up 2.34% year-over-year and relatively stable conditions across most North Bay counties, though Napa County stands out with a notable 14.94% decline in single-family home prices.

Inventory shortages persist in San Francisco while most regions see supply increases

San Francisco's inventory crisis continues to deepen, with 15.93% less single-family inventory and 19.91% fewer condos available compared to last year. This stands in sharp contrast to Silicon Valley, where inventories have grown 7.63% for single-family homes and 25.86% for condos year-over-year. The East Bay is experiencing similar inventory growth with a 15.68% increase in active single-family listings, while the North Bay has seen dramatic month-over-month inventory drops of 21.98% for single-family homes, largely attributed to record-low levels of new listings in July.

Extended time on market becomes the new normal across regions

Despite varying inventory conditions, one consistent trend emerges across the Bay Area: homes are taking longer to sell. The East Bay has seen particularly dramatic increases, with single-family homes now spending 16-18 days on market compared to 13 days last year, while condos are taking 31-35 days versus 19-24 days in 2024. Silicon Valley homes are still selling quickly at under 2.5 weeks, but even this represents an increase from last year. The North Bay is experiencing 20-30% longer listing periods in most markets, with some areas like Marin and Napa County condos seeing dramatic increases of 109.68% and 284.21% respectively.

Market dynamics shift toward more balanced conditions

The changing inventory and pricing dynamics are reshaping market competitiveness across the Bay Area. San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties remain fiercely competitive sellers' markets with just 1.7 and 1.5 months of supply respectively. However, other areas are trending toward more balanced conditions, with Marin County's single-family market flipping to a sellers' market at 2.3 months of supply, while San Francisco's condo market is approaching balance at 3.1 months. The East Bay maintains sellers' market conditions for single-family homes despite falling prices, while condo markets across most regions have shifted to buyer-friendly conditions with 3.4 to 5.7 months of supply available.

Local Lowdown Data

Contact Us
Susan Dakdduk
01714089
580 4th Street San Francisco California 94107
415-378-4985
kindredsfhomes.com

All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, this is not a solicitation of brokerage services. Susan Dakdduk, License 01714089
Kindred SF Homes.
This email was sent to dennisvalansi@gmail.com.
Don't want to receive these anymore? Unsubscribe here.
Powered by ActivePipe, a MoxiWorks Product

ActivePipe Message ID: 3431175

/by